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The First National Communication on Climate Change
| GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY | POLICIES AND MEASURES TO MITIGATE CLIMATE CHANGE | PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REDUCTION POTENTIALS IN UKRAINE | 
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5. Policies and measures to mitigate climate change
5.1 Overall policy context
In the last time the whole number of programs for the economic development of Ukraine was elaborated and adopted, the most important of them were as follows:
- National Energy Program [1];
- Program of Restructuring of Ukrainian Economy [2];
- Comprehensive State Energy Conservation Program of Ukraine [3];
- National Development Programs of Industrial Sectors [4-9].
These documents were assumed as а basis for forming the baseline scenario of the development of economy and its sectors, for assessing projected GHG emissions and mitigation measures.
In correspondence with the baseline scenario of the economic development it is planned to provide main indices of the socio-economic development of the country (Table 5–1) in the period considered, up to 2015.
Table 5–1. The main indices of socio-economic development of Ukraine till 2015
|
Indices |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
|
GDP, billion $ |
73.62 |
35.26 |
41.30 |
58.82 |
84.07 |
97.17 |
|
GDP % |
100.0 |
47.9 |
56.1 |
79.9 |
114.2 |
132.0 |
|
Fuel combustion, PJ |
9246.3 |
5531.5 |
6965.1 |
7557.7 |
8022.5 |
8551.9 |
|
Population, million |
51.9 |
51.5 |
50.2 |
51.0 |
51.5 |
51.8 |
|
Housing fund, million m3 |
922.1 |
978.5 |
1018.5 |
1169.6 |
1255.0 |
1360.5 |
Alongside with the baseline scenario the indices for the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios of the economic development were forecasted. These scenarios differ in terms of crisis peak, duration of economic recovery and further rate of development.
An active and consistent reformation and large-scale economic restructuring (firstly in high intensive industrial sectors) and the increase of its liquidity, considerable increase of Ukrainian goods competitiveness, promotion of energy saving problem in Ukraine are projected in the baseline scenario.
The performance of а balanced financial policy is envisaged. Reforms towards simplifying taxation system, expansion of its base and achieving GDP re-distribution through the state budget up to an ultimate level of 40% of GDP is forecasted.
The increase of budget expences effectiveness, the reduction of dotations and capital transfers structure optimisation are envisaged in budget policy as well as the support of budget deficit at а minimal level (not more than 3.5% from GDP). Realization of money-credit policy should provide the achievement of money stabilization, support of credit system, stimulation of credits towards long-term investment as well as the support of productions, which provide а deep transformation of national mineral-raw resources and build-up the output of import replacing products and export potential of the country.
In correspondence with the forecast of the development of material production sectors in 2001-2005 according to optimistic assessment the accelerated development of metallurgy, chemical and petrochemical industry as well as machine building is envisaged.
Such character of structural shifts will be reflected to а certain extent on the increase of volumes and infrastructure of energy consumption. The change of economic conditions for sectors functioning is also projected, and first of all, the introduction of an active state regulation of energy resources consumption, realization of energy saving measures.
Acceleration of service sector development, in the first turn, due to the development of paid services of the financial economic sector, the increase of а specific weight of paid services in socio-oriented economic sectors, appearence of new types of services, connected with the expansion of informational exchange, etc., are envisaged.
According to optimistic projections of the national economy development positive changes will take place in the period forecasted due to а relative reduction of energy resources import and increase of the Ukrainian coal export. Under these conditions it is possible to achieve а positive net export (1% of GDP) till 2000 with its further growth up to 2% in 2005.
The performance of an active state policy regarding а stimulation of export production in Ukraine is forecasted. The analysis shows, that in the years of crisis the less production recession was marked in those sectors, which have an access to external trade markets. Under the limited domestic demand of some sectors’ products it was export-oriented production which allowed to avoid their degradation. To regulate export production the forecast envisages the revision of production structure, active search of new external markets and restitution of lost ones, structural and technological rehabilitation of production. Mutual coordination of scientific-technical policy with the policy of currency, external economic and taxation-budget regulation should be provided.
Forecast show, that in 1998-2010 а real achievement of economic stabilization with а further development of the country economy is possible. This conclusion is based on economic potential for the development of а number of sectors (agriculture, metallurgy, machinery and equipment, light industry) as well as on the possibility of а gradual solution of energy supply problem in the country.
Activization of investment processes through the increase of а share of basic capital cumulation in а total volume of capital creation should be important for а forecasted period.
Country’s withdrawal from crisis is possible only in conditions of the activization of а positive state influence on the production and social processes towards all-round stimulation of producers and strengthening а real social defence of population.
5.2 Overall mitigation potential
Two groups of mitigation measures were considered in mitigation analyses: policy instruments and technological options (Table 5–2).
Table 5–2. The assessments of mitigation options through 2015
|
Option |
Annual GHG emissions reduction, Gg |
|||
|
CO2 |
CH4 |
N2O |
C |
|
|
Energy consumption metering |
17114.3 |
0.383 |
0.161 |
4683.3 |
|
DSM |
4315.78 |
0.097 |
0.041 |
1181.1 |
|
Industrial processes improving |
1078 |
156 |
10.25 |
2054.0 |
|
Energy efficiency |
230671 |
5.167 |
2.17 |
63123.3 |
|
including |
||||
|
cross sectoral: |
59528 |
1.333 |
0.56 |
16289.9 |
|
efficiency lighting |
4836.65 |
0.108 |
0.046 |
1323.6 |
|
improvement of motor drive systems |
26415.55 |
0.592 |
0.249 |
7228.7 |
|
efficient combustion of low-energy fuel |
1302.175 |
0.029 |
0.012 |
356.3 |
|
improvement of heat supply systems |
10789.45 |
0.242 |
0.102 |
2952.6 |
|
utilization of secondary energy resources |
12649.7 |
0.283 |
0.119 |
3461.6 |
|
sectoral: |
168724.7 |
3.779 |
1.587 |
46171.6 |
|
energy efficiency in FEC |
35344.75 |
0.792 |
0.333 |
9672.2 |
|
including |
||||
|
optimization of generating capacities, technological improvements |
21578.9 |
0.483 |
0.203 |
5905.1 |
|
high efficiency gas supply system |
2604.35 |
0.058 |
0.025 |
712.7 |
|
up-to-date technologies of coal production |
2046.28 |
0.046 |
0.019 |
559.9 |
|
energy efficiency in industry |
76642.3 |
1.717 |
0.721 |
20973.2 |
|
including |
||||
|
energy efficiency in metallurgy |
19346.6 |
0.433 |
0.182 |
5294.2 |
|
energy efficiency in mechanical engineering |
6324.85 |
0.142 |
0.060 |
1730.8 |
|
energy efficiency in chemical industry |
8557.15 |
0.192 |
0.081 |
2341.7 |
|
energy efficiency in constructing materials industry |
6696.9 |
0.15 |
0.063 |
1832.6 |
|
energy efficiency in food industry |
13393.8 |
0.3 |
0.126 |
3665.2 |
|
energy efficiency in others industrial sectors |
22323 |
0.5 |
0.21 |
6108.7 |
|
energy efficiency in constructing sector |
930.125 |
0.021 |
0.009 |
254.6 |
|
energy efficiency in agriculture |
11161.5 |
0.25 |
0.105 |
3054.4 |
|
energy efficiency in residential sector |
24183.3 |
0.542 |
0.228 |
6617.8 |
|
energy efficiency in transport sector |
20462.8 |
0.458 |
0.193 |
5599.7 |
|
Implementation of 3 GW at Npps |
14882 |
0.333 |
0.14 |
4072.5 |
|
Untraditional resources |
42785.8 |
0.958 |
0.403 |
11708.4 |
|
Reducing methane emissions in coal mining |
0 |
710 |
- |
4066.4 |
|
Shift from oil motor fuel to gas |
1850 |
1.115 |
0.06 |
516.0 |
|
Reduction of leaks in gas systems |
0 |
1400 |
0 |
8018.2 |
|
Waste treatment |
0 |
540 |
-0.9 |
3016.6 |
|
Installation of equipment for processing of waste water sediment |
0 |
19 |
0 |
108.8 |
|
Total |
310241.3 |
2832.998 |
12.301 |
101876.6 |
Policy instruments
State regulation of rational energy use in all sectors, including:
- legislation, supporting energy saving and environmental protection policies;
- standard regulations on fuel and energy consumption, GHG emissions etc.;
- fees, taxes, subsidies, prices, stimulating implementation of efficiency technologies and equipment;
- research, development and demonstration programs to improve and disseminate information;
- energy and environmental audit, R&D centers, information and personnel training centers, energy management at the enterprises, licensing requirements, patent rules, etc.;
- demand side management;
- energy consumption metering.
This portfolio of policy instruments will promote sustainable development of Ukraine and lead to the restructuring of economy. A strong role of energy-intensive sectors (energy, metallurgy, heavy mechanical engineering, etc.) will not be continued under market conditions. Low energy use sectors, services and agriculture are favourable.
Technological options
Implementation of energy efficient technologies are the most important for reducing GHG emissions.
Cross-sectoral energy saving options:implementation of efficiency lighting, motor drive systems improvement, more efficient poor fuel combustion, improvement of the heat supply systems, utilization of secondary energy resources etc. Energy conservation assessment is 800 PJ with an investment of $ 2 billion.
Sectoral energy saving options:
The most effective measures are follows:
Energy Supply:technological and efficiency improvements in power sector, high efficiency gas supply system etc. Energy conservation assessment is 450-500 PJ with an investment of $ 5-6 billion.
Metallurgy: improvements in coke making, recycling of blast furnace, coke oven and converter gases, wide implementation of electric arc furnaces, decrease of output of the most energy intensive production etc. Energy conservation assessment is 240-280 PJ with an investment of around $ 2 billion.
Mechanical Engineering: implementation of efficiency technologies of metal processing, use of high quality raw materials etc. Energy conservation assessment is 75-90 PJ with an investment of $ 800-900 mln.
Chemical industry:improvement of the technologies of ammonia, calcium soda and phosphoric fertilizers production etc. Energy conservation assessment is 105-120 PJ with an investment of $ 825-925 mln.
Building materials industry: improvement of technological processes of cement, glass, brick, wall materials production, etc. Energy conservation assessment is 75-95 PJ with an investment of $ 320-350 mln.
Food industry: improvement of technological processes of sugar, spirit, vegetable oil production, etc. Energy conservation assessment is 170-190 PJ with an investment of $ 600-650 mln.
Construction sector:improvement of technological processes of concrete, cement, asphalt, brick production etc. Energy conservation assessment is 10-15 PJ with an investment of $ 60-70 mln.
Agriculture: reduction of а share of energy intensive plants, improvement of post-harvest drying and storage, switch to low carbon energy sources, etc. Energy conservation assessment is 140-160 PJ with an investment of $ 1-1.3 billion.
Residential sector:switch to energy sources/equipment with low-carbon emissions, improvement of insulation for existing and new building shells, shift to more efficiency household equipment, etc. Energy conservation assessment is 300-350 PJ with an investment of $ 750-850 mln.
Transport:transport demand management, improvement of vehicle technical efficiency, fuel switch, improvement of traffic flow, etc. Energy conservation assessment is 250-300 PJ with investment of $ 2.5-3 billion.
Fuel substitution:Increase share of nuclear fuel, renewable, secondary and non-traditional energy resources. Shift from coal and petroleum to natural gas, utilization of coalbed methane and biogas.
Reduction of losses in gas supply system. Replacement of high-bleed devices with pneumatic, pipeline leak mitigation, improved maintenance. Methane reduction potential is 2-2.2 billion m3with an investment of $ 4-6 mln.
Improvement of industrial processesnot related to energy saving.Investment assessment is approximately $ 200 mln.
Improvement of waste treatment.The integrated management of the wastes and at first place their reduction and construction of regional centers for their treatment and detoxication would provide annual utilization of 5.8-6.2 mln tons of wastes and require investments of approximately $ 1-1.1 billion.
Realization of such options will provide the annual energy saving at а level of 2000 - 1000-1100 PJ, 2005 - 1950-2100 PJ, 2010 - 3100-3200 PJ, 2015 - 4100-4200 PJ. These measures will require around $29-32 billion investments.
The differences for pessimistic and optimistic scenarios are generally in volumes of energy saving, which in optimistic variant will be approximately 10-12% higher, and in pessimistic one - 25-30% lower.
All these measures have а high degree of а governmental support, since they are included in the programs of the development of the economy and its sectors in Ukraine, adopted by the administrative bodies of the state, as well as in the draft documents, which at present are being under consideration of the Cabinet of Ministers, of the Parliament and the administration of the President of the country.
However the possibility of realization of these measures will to а great extent depend on the investments. If until the recent time а state budget had been considered as а major source of investments, then today it is clear, that the state can be not only а single source, but just а considerable source of investments. Therefore the problem of investments is being the main one.
That is why the analysis of measures effectiveness, which was carried on according to some criteria, where the criterion of а relative effectiveness played а major role, is of а considerable interest. It was determined as а relation of direct GHG emissions decrease to the necessary investments for their realization in particular measures. The executed ranging of measures according to this criterion shows, that measures, connected with the decrease of natural gas losses, with DSM, with the realization of cross-sectoral energy saving programs, are the most effective ones.
The implementation of non-traditional sources, optimization of the electric power and heat utilities, the sets for poor coal combustion, installation of constructions for the refining of wastewater silt at purification stations, are the most expensive measures for GHG emissions decrease from the economic view point.
However, it must be taken into consideration, that for а whole number of measures given the GHG emissions decrease is an indirect effect. Expedience of their realization is conditioned, as а rule, by other factors.
Realization of measures mentioned above will give а considerable social effect, first of all by the creation of new working places, for example in machinery and equipment sector, construction, energy saving management, etc. A total number of new working places according to evaluations of national experts on the level of 2010-2015 can make up to 250-300 thousand.
5.3 References
- National Energy Program, 1996.
- Program of Restructuring of Ukrainian Economy, 1995.
- Comprehensive State Energy Conservation Program of Ukraine, 1996.
- National Program of the Development of Mining and Smelting complex, 1995.
- National Program of the Ukrainian Motor-car-construction Development, 1993.
- National Program of Receptacles and Packing Materials Production, 1993.
- National Program of the Development of Aluminum Production, 1993.
- National Complex Program of the Development of Titanic Industry of Ukraine «Titanium of Ukraine», 1994.
- Complex Program of the Development of Copper Production, its Alloys and Intermediate Goods «Copper of Ukraine»,1995.
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| GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY | PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND REDUCTION POTENTIALS IN UKRAINE |
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